Basic Strategy Development

Statisticians and mathematicians became interested in the blackjack game in the 1950s and calculated a basic blackjack strategy for eliminating much of the casino house advantage. These researchers simulated thousands and thousands of blackjack hands to arrive at their strategy, which was based on the statistical probability of certain events (cards dealt) happening.

These theories and statistics were further developed and tweaked in the 60s and 70s when computers became more readily available.  The researchers were now able to simulate millions of hands of blackjack in a much shorter time and completed the development of what is now known as basic blackjack strategy.

The basic blackjack strategy is based on this statistical analysis and the fact that the player may choose to double down or split when favourable and gets paid 3:2 for blackjack. Whereas the dealer must adhere to the rules and stand on 17 and above, cannot double down or split and only gets paid 1:1 for blackjack.

For instance it is a statistical fact that the dealer has more than a 35% chance of busting if their face up card is a 3, 4, 5 or 6. So, in this case, if you have a total of 13 to 16, you should stand as the dealer has a good chance of busting, as do you, but you can choose not to hit whereas the dealer must hit.

However if the dealer has a 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace, you should take another card as there is a high probability that the dealer’s face down card is a 10, and their hand will beat you.

The basic blackjack strategy was advanced further by mathematicians, particularly at MIT, that developed advanced card counting tecniques that gave them an enormous advantage in the right conditions.

However, be warned, card counting is impossible at virtually all online casinos as they all use random hand generating software and do not simulate an offline bricks and mortar casino that deals consecutively from shuffled cards in a shoe.